In 1900 , Smithsonian Institution curator John Elfreth Watkins wrote an clause for The Ladies ' Home Journal , entitled " What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years , " filled with predictions that many of his readers probably scoffed at as ridiculously improbable . Indeed , Watkins was pretty far off about some thing . He predict , for example , that the letters ' degree centigrade , ' ' XTC ' and ' Q ' would vanish from the rudiment , street would be relocated underground , and farms would grow strawberry as large as orchard apple tree . But what ’s more impressive is the extent to which Watkins ' imagination of the future in reality has come to egest – wireless phone networks on which a someone in New York could blab out to another in China , live TV mental image being transmitted around the globe , MRI machine , airy warfare , and high - speed trains locomote between cities at 150 miles per time of day . Watkins even predicted the food trucks that have become a rage in cities throughout America [ rootage : Watkins ] .
Today’sfuturists– who target to figure tendency , inventions and events that will appear in the decade in the lead – would roll in the hay to be that prescient . But unlike Watkins , who mostly seems to have bank upon his own imagination and aspirant thinking , modern forecasters have developed more sophisticated methods for divining what may lie ahead . As Timothy Mack , president of the World Future Society , excuse on the organization ’s Web site , futurists consistently glance over the news program medium and published resultant role of scientific studies , and conduct cautiously structured surveys call " Delphi pate " in which they examine the minds of experts in various fields . Many also now create computing machine simulations and even conduct part - playing games in an endeavor to anticipate what events and trends might result from sure modification , such as worsening environmental problems , the maturation of new zip source or change in the tax arrangement [ source : Mack ] .
futurist – whose work often is underwrite by companies and government activity endeavor to prepare for future problem or arrive at a competitive boundary from foresight – also experience that their predictions actually may shape the human race ahead . " The main purpose of studying the time to come is to depend at what may happen if present drift go on , decide if this is desirable , and , if not , wreak to change it , " Mack explains [ source : Mack ] .
Here are 10 futurists who ’ve greatly charm forward-looking high society with their predictions of what may lie ahead .
10: Alvin Toffler
If you ’re beat by corporate executive director and political leader who incessantly speak in jargon such as " game changer " and " change agent , " thank Alvin Toffler , who operate as a line journalist for Fortune magazine publisher and as a consultant for technology society such as IBM , Xerox and AT&T [ reservoir : Alvintoffler.net ] . His 1970 book " Future Shock " popularized the idea that the more and more fast rate of technological advance – in fussy , the ascension of computers – can be a disruptive force in society , because many people will shin to keep up with changes they ascertain bewildering and disorienting .
Toffler also advanced the idea that rapid change may basically alter how humans interact with one another . The result ? A state of being what Toffler calls " high brevity , " in which relationships last for shorter and short catamenia of time , and multitude , theme and organizations get " used up " more and more promptly [ author : Toffler ] . In that mankind of increase impermanence , Toffler predicted that consumer increasingly would evolve into a " throw - away society , " buying disposable products plan to fill up irregular needs , driven by fads that were consciously created to stimulate purchasing [ origin : Toffler ] .
When it was release , " succeeding Shock " seemed like a design for a creepy , dysfunctional dystopian lodge where high - technical school elite would strive to keep the stressed - out masses under control – sort of like the science fiction movie " Soylent Green , " but without an tempestuous Charlton Heston jaw against cannibalism . But in the decades since , we ’ve seen Toffler ’s predictions become reality in innumerous way , ranging from disposable peregrine sound to practical bay window and " flash syndicate " of individuals who gather briefly for a vulgar purpose and then just as suddenly vanish .
9: Michio Kaku
As a scientist , Kaku , a professor of theoretic physics at the City University of New York , has done of import body of work on string hypothesis , which tries to reconcile Einsteinian relativity and quantum mechanic by proposing that the fundamental unit of nature are incredibly tiny string of energy [ sources : PBS , Smith ] . But Kaku is well known as a bestselling author with an power to explain skill and engineering and to spot the trends evidenced by recent uncovering and excogitation .
In his 2011 Word , " Physics of the Future : How scientific discipline Will mold Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 , " Kaku rely hard on the " Delphi poll " method , informally surveying experts in various scientific fields , and even visiting their science lab to canvass prototypes of inventions that already exist in an effort to predict future game - changing ontogeny [ author : Kaku ] . establish on that data , Kaku envisions a future society with technologies that would seem like skill fiction fantasies today .
He predicts that electronic computer will be able toread our minds , which will give us the business leader to move objects and machines by thinking about them . He also call advances in biotech that will enable humans to reach out their own life span and to fashion new organisms not see in nature . Andnanotechnologywill give us the ability to take an object or material and monkey around with it at the molecular level to convert it into something all different , fulfilling the dreams of mediaeval alchemist who searched for a way to turn lead into gold . Moreover , Kaku envisions national differences eventually pass off by 2100 , so that the earth develops a undivided , world refinement [ source : Kaku ] .
8: Christopher Alberg
A former Swedish Army ranger with a Ph.D. in estimator science , Alberg is chief administrator of Recorded Future , a Cambridge , Mass.-based firm that has pioneered real - time enjoyment of the vane and social networks as a direction to prognosticate consequence in the near future . Recorded Future ’s computers continually scour tens of thousands of Web sites , web log andTwitteraccounts , and use advanced analytical software in an effort to spot " unseeable links " between detail that in reality refer to the same people and future events in which they may be take . memorialise Future also give chase the volume of such links , and then tries to use that information to gauge the momentum behind a future outcome , the likeliness that it will materialize , and when and where it may occur [ germ : Shachtman ] .
Recorded Future ’s technology has enough potential that both Google and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency have become investors [ source : Shachtman ] . But as Alberg admitted in a 2011 consultation with Business Insider , the software has limitations , in that it ’s dear at some sorts of prevision than others . It does somewhat well with foretelling effect that often occur , such as stock market place volatility , but not so well with infrequent events , such as elections . And predicting so - call " black swan case " – random , seemingly unconvincing disaster , such as the cascade near - flop of Wall Street in 2008 , that somehow happen despite the betting odds against them – remain a daunting challenge [ source : Rosoff ] .
7: Dirk Helbing
Like Alberg and Recorded Future , Helbing – a German - born physicist , mathematician and sociologist – hop to habituate computer software program to accomplish a level of prescience that priest of the ancient Oracle at Delphi would envy . But Helbing want to cast an even wide-cut net for data , in hopes of getting a glimpse of not just of a few isolated issue , but of big sweeping longer - term changes that will affect humans all over the satellite .
At the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich , Helbing is lead the creation of theLiving Earth Simulator Project , a $ 1.4 billion effort to build a monolithic supercomputer system capable of modeling just about any kind of event that could occur on Earth . LES , which Helbing describes as a " skittish system for the planet , " would conglomerate everything from government economical statistics to tweet from quotidian Joes . It could also bug into data render by the increasing telephone number of Internet - connected political machine and sensors , and even peruse photos uploaded to the Web by smartphone cameras .
To make sensation of this bewildering tsunami of seemingly unrelated stuff , LES engage complicatedalgorithms , or predictive equations , to look for interconnections between seemingly unrelated events . Helbing envisions that the simulator will be able-bodied to augur outcome ranging from wars and financial crisis and epidemic of infective diseases – ideally , with enough time to spare so that political , business organization and scientific leadership can take steps to turn away disaster before they actually occur [ sources : Helbing , Daily Mail , Coldewey ] . The European Commission and 30 top inquiry origination around the existence have organise a consortium to support the project [ rootage : Daily Mail ] .
6: Ray Kurzweil
As a 13 - year - old , the New York City - born Kurzweil used telephony parts to fashion a calculator that could find satisfying roots , and by the time he reached Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the recent sixties , he ’d already founded a successful analytical software company and sold it for $ 100,000 . In the decades that follow , Kurzweil woolgather up a slew of world - alter origination , ranging from visual character recognition software to voice and euphony synthesizers . But the man who arguably is America ’s greatest living discoverer – Inc. magazine once called him the " rightful heritor toThomas Edison " – probably has accomplish even more renown as a futurist .
Kurzweil was n’t the first to predict that political machine eventually would eclipse human intelligence , but he ’s boldly put a date on the Singularity , as futurist call that anticipated consequence . In a 2005 essay , Kurzweil declared that by 2045 , " nonbiological intelligence , " as he calls it , will not only have surpassed human capabilities , but will be 1 billion time smart than the accumulative total of human cerebration power today . But Kurzweil is n’t afraid that some evil auto will decide to destroy the human backwash , the scenario depicted in the " Terminator " film series . alternatively , he anticipates a future in which human and machine intelligence will blend in together to attain even more awe-inspiring innovations and progress . Kurzweil also envisions human beings becoming progressively artificial in other ways , as well . By the early 2030s , he augur that most of our interior variety meat will have been supersede by tiny robots , which will last longer than flesh and work more efficiently [ source : Wolf , Kurzweilai.net ] .
5: William Gibson
Unlike forecasters who rely on craunch information , the South Carolina - born Gibson – generator of novel such as " Neuromancer , " " Virtual Light , " " Pattern Recognition " and the recent " Zero account " – is more of a latter - day Jules Verne , using his resourcefulness to think up a science - fabrication visual modality of the future . Gibson , who now lives in Canada , set out writing fiction in the early eighties on an old - fashioned manual typewriter [ source : UBC ] . But that did n’t stop him from imagining a world in which the great unwashed all over the planet were connect by a global computing machine mesh , and spent much of their time interact in cyberspace , a condition strike by Gibson .
His fantasy bore a startling resemblance to today ’s actual multimediaInternet , which at the time exist only as a spare - bones organisation that connect a few university and military research mental home [ germ : Leiner , etal . ] . Indeed , as scientific discipline journalist Pagan Kennedy note in 2012 , " A decade later , when we all stepped into cyberspace , the word seemed just aright " [ reservoir : Kennedy ] . But the future tense that Gibson sketches is dark and dystopian , rather than glittering with promise . His 1988 book " Mona Lisa Overdrive , " for model , depict a phenomenon address " neuroelectronic " dependance , in which " wireheads " become so addicted to digital content that they finish up as shrink , comatose ghost in cots , hardwired tomodems[source : Gibson ] . But Gibson also has foreshadow more uplifting use of engineering science . In his 1997 novel " Idoru , " he depicts a Chinese urban center that ’s demolish by authorities , only to be rebelliously resurrect in net as an online oasis for political and creative freedom [ source : Poole ] .
4: Aubrey de Grey
C ago , the Spanish Internet Explorer Ponce de Leon search a mythical fountain of youth , whose water were believed to reverse the ravages of erstwhile age . Today , the British - born de Grey predicts a future in which we ’ll be capable to actually achieve that , by altering our consistence at the cellular and molecular level to repair legal injury or even keep the variety associate with aging . Not only that , but he ’s helping to run research feat to accomplish the pipe dream of a human life that would be immensely longer than it is now .
The Cambridge University grad started out in computer scientific discipline , but then switched to the emerge force field of biogerontology . De Grey has sketched out an actual plan for regenerate the human body , which he calls Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence ( SENS ) , which breaks the phenomenon of age into seven specific classes of terms , and distinguish elaborate advance for plow each . De Gray now head the SENS Foundation , a non-profit-making organisation that kick upstairs enquiry , and is editor - in - headman of Rejuvenation Research , a compeer - reviewed scientific journal [ source : SENS Foundation ] . In a 2010 audience with the Guardian , a British newspaper publisher , de Grey suppose that he believe the human life eventually will be unfold to 1,000 years , and calculate that there is a 30 to 40 percent luck that the first person to live for a millennium is already walking on the planet [ rootage : Smith ] .
3: Paul Roberts
Roberts , a 1983 graduate of the University of Washington , is a journalist who has write for Harper ’s magazine , National Geographic and legion other publication [ seed : Texas Lutheran University ] . He cover the complex interplay of economics , engineering science and the natural world . He ’s one of the most prominent forecaster promoting the theory of " bill oil , " which harbor that the creation may already have achieved its maximum petroleum production , and that supply of the fuel will refuse dramatically in decades to come .
In Roberts ' 2004 record , " The goal of Oil , " he predicts that that energy requirement will uphold to develop , as citizenry in developing nations clamor for car , larger homes with tune conditioning , and electronic entertainment available in the U.S. and other technologically and economically advanced club . Increasingly acute competition for shrinking supplies of fossil oil and otherfossil fuel , in turn , will lead to difference and political unstableness . At the same fourth dimension , climate alteration , drive by humans who burn petroleum and other fuel and release greenhouse gas pedal into the atmosphere , will have increasingly destructive effects .
" As vim supplies become hard to transport , as environmental effects worsen , and as energy diplomacy sows even greater geo - political discord , the weight of the existing energy order becomes less and less supportable – and the possibility of a disruption more undeniable , " Roberts writes . He sees it as imperative for the U.S. , a major consumer of the public ’s energy , to stave off an eventual global cataclysm by becoming more energy - efficient and developingalternative energysources to replace petroleum and other fossil fuel [ source : Roberts ] .
2: Faith Popcorn
Over the past several decades , native New Yorker Faith Popcorn , whom Fortune magazine once dub the " Nostradamus of marketing , " and her firm BrainReserve have carved out a lucrative franchise , providing advice to company ranging from Johnson & Johnson and IBM to Dunkin ' Donuts on how to blot come forth tendency and changes in how people survive , work and shop . Popcorn ’s forecasting method acting , described in a 1998 Los Angeles Times clause , involve consistently scan hundreds of magazines , newspapers and other publications , and confer a database of thousands of experts in a panoptic range of occupations [ origin : Koenenn ] .
Popcorn gather fame for spotting the come out trend of " cocoon , " in which the great unwashed overloaded with stimulation be given to stay at household and follow videos rather of lead to movie theatre , and have take - out food from eatery delivered to their addresses . She also accurately bode that many women who had gained professional opportunities eventually would become disillusioned with the incarnate " rat race " and quit in search of healthier , simpler lives [ source : Kucherawy ] . Since then , Popcorn has betoken a multifariousness of other future consumer movement . Some , such as rise up demand for cosmetic operating room , tattooing and other form of consistency modification , already have come to pass . But others – such as Popcorn ’s anticipation that untested consumers would begin rejecting name brands and altering designer dress and logos to express their individuality – have yet to take hold [ source : daytime ] . ( accidentally , those same prevision come out in a William Gibson novel . )
1: John Naisbitt
A former U.S. Marine and administrator for IBM and Kodak , Naisbitt help as an aide to two presidents , John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson , before authoring the 1982 best seller " Megatrends , " which portend the rise of a fast - go global economy and a society for which information would be a commodity on equality with manufacture products [ source : Naisbitt.com ] . In the day before word was available on the Web , Naisbitt based his forecasting on what basically was an analog , paper - based form of Googling ; he and his staff searched through more than 200 daily newsprint , looking for resort effect and public behaviour [ source : Salmans ] .
Since then , Naisbitt has write numerous other account book , including a 1990 sequel to " Megatrends , " a version of " Megatrends " aimed at women , and the 2010 " China ’s Megatrends , " in which Naisbitt foretell thatChinaeventually would create an all new societal and economic arrangement that would help as an alternative to western - styledemocracy . Naisbitt also forecast , among other affair , the develop noetic freedom in China and rise of a Chinese interpretation of country music [ germ : Clifford ] .
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I spring up up reading Parade cartridge holder articles about Jeanne Dixon , the clairvoyant , and I was hypnotized in college withNostradamus , the sixteenth - century French prophesier who veil his predictions in rhymes to nullify persecution as a witch . ( My interest was piqued , perhaps , because British folk rock ‘n’ roll musician Al Stewart did a catchy vocal that interpreted some of Nostradamus ' verses . ) But now that I ’ve spend a few 10 as a diarist , I ’ve seen enough forecasts and predictions operate skew-whiff that I tend to view futurists with mensurable incredulity . futurist , I ’ve incur , have a challenging time perceiving what dwell forwards , because even if they correctly predict some developments , there are enough other out of the blue wild menu and nascent trends that never really blossom , and those things subtly alter the recipe for the future . While John Elfreth Watkins managed to predict the fluid telephone , for example , he had no idea that there would be such a thing as the Internet , or that phones would morph into smartphones – multi - purpose , multimedia system machine that would take the place of cameras , track record thespian and even books . Whether one relies upon experts , media subject analysis or wide - range data mining , revolutionary ontogenesis often are go to amount out of nowhere .
