You ’ve probably heard the old truism that every vote counts . But judging from theembarrassingly miserable voter participation ratein U.S. elections compare to those in other developed country , it ’s safe to say that many Americans do n’t believe that throw away a ballot for a particular candidate really matters that much in the result .
That ’s substantiated by a 2016 Pew Research Center survey , in which25 percent of nonvotersotherwise eligible to frame a balloting in that year ’s presidential election cited " my vote would not matter " as the explanation for why they abstain . That ’s nearly as high as the number who said they did n’t vote because they did n’t like either campaigner ( 26 percent ) , and higher than the component who had neglected to show ( 22 percent ) by deadline .
Indeed , the chances of a single voter throw what researchers call a " polar vote " in an election are pretty remote — but it does happen .
Ina 2001 study , University of Chicago economic science prof Casey B. Mulligan and business sector economic adviser Charles G. Hunter analyze nearly a century ’s worth of Congressional election results and 21 yr ' Charles Frederick Worth of state legislative election returns — closely 57,000 election in all , not consider uncontested races . Out of the 16,577 federal election canvas , only one was decided by a unmarried vote . But the researchers found seven country election that came down to a single voting .
As Mulliganwrote in a 2010 postfor The New York Times ' Economix blog , the hazard that a voter will cast a ballot that will shape the victor of a Union election is less than 1 in 100,000 and in state legislative airstream , the odds increase to 1 in less than 25,000 . In local elections , where the electorate may be in the few thousands or even hundreds , pivotal votes may happen even more often . While nationwide data is n’t usable , in Ohio alone 14 race for office in 2015 resulted in either a tie or a single - vote margin , according to the Record - Courier newspaper .
" The find out - the - winner incentive to vote is minuscule , " says Mulligan via email . " Even in a local election with , say , 2000 votes , it ’s still only a one - in-1,000 hazard . "
But even though one vote has only a flyspeck luck of being the pivotal one in an election , that does n’t mean that ballot is n’t significant . Collectively , votes matter a great trade . sure groups in the population that have higher widening rates — such as older elector , the wealthy , and white Americans — profit from the clout nail that they achieve as a resultant role , says Sean McElwee , an psychoanalyst forDemos , a public insurance organization that wreak to scale down political and economic inequality in the U.S.
" When col in turnout are low , policy is more equitable , " McElwee say . " Even in deeply drear or flushed district , suffrage portion send important signals to instance about their constituents . In local election , where turnout charge per unit are often undivided - finger , suffrage margin are far narrow and outturn is even more skewed against people of color , young people and miserable - income folks . "
These are some of the other elections in the United States decided by a single vote :
1. 1910 Election for the 36th Congressional District of New York
In the only Congressional election to have been set by a individual suffrage , popular challengerCharles Bennett Smith , a newspaper editor by craft and an advocate of ban , face Republican incumbent Rep. D.S. Alexander . concord to a Nov. 20 , 1910 , New York Times clause , after the initial count of the return , the two candidates were tied at 20,684 . But the election board notice an error in the total on a enumeration sheet from one dominion . When it was discipline , Smith receive the exclusive vote call for to elect him . grant tohis Congressional life history , Smith became chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and was elected three more times to Congress before losing a re - election play in 1918 .
2. 2000 Seat Pleasant, Maryland, Mayoral Election
This Maryland city had one of the unknown one - suffrage elections ever — it was make up one’s mind by a right to vote that was n’t honk . A charwoman picture up at her polling place on the evening of the election , and all though she was registered to vote , her name did n’t show up in the records because she had changed her address . official did n’t permit her to cast a ballot for the prospect of her selection , Thurman D.Jones , Jr. , and Jones lost the election by 247 - 246 to incumbent Eugene F. Kennedy . Jones later filed a causa contest the result . But ina 2001 opinion , the Maryland Court of Appeals overturned a humiliated - court ruling and left Kennedy as the victor , because it had n’t been shown that fraud had been committed .
3. 2008 Alaska House of Representatives District 7 Election
Republican Rep. Mike Kelly won re - election by a vote of5,018 to 5,017over Democratic competition Karl Kassel — but only after overseas absentee ballots were counted .
4. 2012 Democratic Primary for 87th Legislative District in Missouri
Because of redistricting , Rep. Stacey Newman was pitted in a primary election against a fellow legislator , Rep. Susan Carlson . On election night , Newman prevailed by a single vote,1,823 to 1,822.But the St. Louis County Election Boarddeclined to certify the results , say that 102 elector at one polling position had erroneously been give ballot for a neighboring district . But in fuss - over primaryseven weeks later , the effect was unchanged . Newman again come through , this time by 95 votes .
5. 2013 Election for 12th Legislative District in New York
In the 2012 race in Oswego County , New York , Richard P. Kline and John W. Brandt confront each other in both the Republican and materialistic company primaries , with Kline winning the button-down party nod and Brandt winning as the Republican standard - bearer . When the results were tally on election dark , Kline appeared to be on top by just seven vote , butSyracuse.comreported that his security deposit eventually squinch to just one balloting , 371 - 370 .
6. 2017 Clyman, Wisconsin, Board Chairman
The bantam hamlet of Clyman , Wisconsin , universe 488 , is n’t a place that ’s in the news program much . But in April 2017 , Clyman had an extremely tight race for the post of board chairperson . David Blank , a local fire sea captain , received101 votes to 100for ball carrier - up Mark Othmer .
