In 1976 , political scientists Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg made a revolutionary prediction about the future of American election . Based on polling data , the faculty member asserted that Americans were in the midst of a transition away from establishment politics that pits Republicans against Democrats every four years . Bell - bottom - clad young adults at the time certify minuscule allegiance to either major political party , which the political scientists believed might betoken an approaching era of autonomous elector and candidates [ source : Bartels ] . In add-on , a 1976 survey conducted by the American National Election Studies chemical group concluded that just 46 percent of adults even noticed significant divergence between the Republican and popular party [ source : Day ] .
Thirty - five years by and by , a Gallup poll parrot indicate that Niemi and Weisberg had made a winning forecast . As of 2011 , 40 pct of Americanvotersidentified as independent , the highest balance on record since Gallup began tallying up political affiliations in 1988 [ source : Jones ] . Though there has been a statistical uptick in ego - labeled independent voter in late decades , that development has n’t brought along a complemental declination in partisanship , however . On the opposite , in the 2008 American National Election Studies survey , 78 pct of respondents agreed that " important remainder " subsist between the two major company [ root : Day ] .
Even in a contemporary political atmosphere still dominated by conflict parties that by and large correspond on minimal platforms , sovereign elector ' stock has continued to lift because they ’ve come to be one of the most influential blocs within America ’s diverse vote pond . The group first received interior recognition in the 1980 presidential race when the so - calledReagan Democratspulled their levers for the Gipper , motivated to cross party lines due to his social conservatism . More lately , swing voters– independent make love to party hop from election to election – were considered crucial forPresident Barack Obama’s2008 victory ; he claim 52 pct of self-governing elector [ generator : Zeleny and Sussman ] .
But why do they go scalawag in the first position ?
Who are independent voters?
According to a September 2010 study conducted by the nonpartizan Pew Center for the People and the Press , independents are the large voting group in the United States , followed by Democrats , then Republicans ; that say , more than one-half of independents formerly identified with one or both of those major party [ source : Pew Research Center ] . In a related development , Democratic and Republican rosters have slimmed by a combined 2.5 million since 2008 [ source : Wolf ] . Explanations for going independent reveal a large-minded unease with establishment politics , which may have been aggravated in the past 20 year by mount infighting between Republicans and Democrats , as well as a bequest ofnegative political political campaign . similarly , the top two reasons self-employed person propose Pew researchers for not side with the donkey or elephant : political parties caring more about exceptional interests than citizen ' needs and governmental mistrust .
For her 2012 book " The Swing Vote , " Linda Killian interviewed a host of self - identified independent elector who echoed standardized concern about the Washington money motorcar . The 2012 presidential election is tracking to be the costly campaign in American account , in all probability racking up more than $ 1 billion in disbursement [ source : Salyer ] . Snagging a Senate or House of Representative bottom is n’t chintzy , either ; Killian cited a Campaign Finance Institute statistic trap the cost of becoming a U.S. senator at $ 9 million in 2010 [ root : Killian ] . In a nation recovering from an economicrecessionthat impart scores of home in wretched fiscal figure , that variety of spending clearly has n’t sat well with independent .
Independent voter also may adjudicate to distance themselves from Republicans and Democrats because they ’re take in ideologically somewhere in the middle . A chunk of them espouse socially liberal position , such as procreative rightfulness for woman , while at the same meter preferring fiscal conservatism , include lower taxation [ source : Killian ] . Demographically , independent voter are n’t as easy to categorise . Leading up to the 2012 presidential election , conservative - leaning older man living in rural and suburban areas , and more liberally inclined untried urban single women emerged as two in demand independent sub - group [ source : Penn ] . At the same prison term , Latino and Asian - American voters have increasingly disengaged from partisan politics and now comprise up to 40 percent of independents [ beginning : Ryo ] . This smattering of independent groups is indicatory not only of the challenge of enamour their votes , but also the expanding multifariousness among U.S. voters .
Adding even more nicety to how independents bear at the polls , here ’s a final wrinkle : they may not be all that autonomous after all .
Independent, Not Undecided
Independent voter are n’t synonymous with undecided voters . The chemical group do overlap with some independent elector leaving their last candidate decision until the last minute , but that does n’t accurately reflect non - partisans at tumid . specially during election years , unresolved voters are far more difficult to chase after down , and also tend to be less informed politically and less likely to exercise their ballot rights than mugwump . In August 2012 , three months away from a presidential contest , Gallup figure that between 6 and 8 pct of voters rest on the fence , and a survey commissioned by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal come up with an even low-spirited figure at just 3 percent [ author : Epstein ] .
More perplexingly , the " main " descriptor might not even be synonymous with these attention - showered indie voters . information signal that only a minority of free-lance do n’t clearly lean toward one side or the other of the buttoned-down - liberal spectrum . Many leave behind paper track at the balloting boxwood that settle along company line rather than hopscotching back and forth . For instance , Emory University political science professor Alan I. Abramowitz cull through expiration poll from the 2008 presidential election and found that only 7 percent of self - key out independents had vote genuinely independently , denounce no Republican or popular view [ root : Page ] . But what about flip - flop from the 2008 presidential election that see independents going Democratic , and the 2010 U.S. congressional elections in which registered independents overwhelmingly vote Republican ? Again , dislocation of the exit polling data point revealed that Republicans tipped the scales because more consistently conservative - leaning independent showed up at the poll versus liberal - list indie [ source : Daily Kos ] .
Putting all of the independent voter information together provides a picture , therefore , not so much of a movement toward moderation , but distaste for the nature of modern politics . Granted , a large swatch of independent desire a symmetry of social liberalism , fiscal conservatism and bipartisanship [ source : Killian ] . Even among those more moderate voters , their policy precedence nevertheless pile up resolutely in favor of Republican or Democratic candidates , which leads to the ultimate irony of sovereign elector : they abstain from party recording label , yet the wise means for politicians to woo those powerful votes belike is to stick to their Republican or Democratic guns rather than waffling toward the midriff .
As the 2012 presidential political campaign season has develop over late months , it ab initio seemed like women were the most prized and court voting bloc on the pulley block . But after researching How Independent Voters Work , I realized that I was incorrect . These nonpartisans are the largest and most influential grouping in the American electorate , and they portion out something in common with female voters . As I outlined in " Do man and cleaning woman vote differently ? , " char are a monolithic demographic that side irresistibly with one political party or campaigner . There are mini - demographic within the overarching demographic that have conflicting viewpoints and allegiances – just like independent voters . untested , urban cleaning lady , for representative , are well represented among independents , but so are rural and suburban male . And that ’s the knavish affair about analyze massive vote groups like independents that represent 40 percentage of potential voters : in a country as tremendous and various as the United States , there ’s always plenty of elbow room for exceptions to the rule .
