midterm exam election are held in even - numbered years between presidential election . They ’re call midterm examination because they coincide with the halfway point of a president ’s four - year terminal figure . For this reason , many political observers await to the midterms as a referendum on a sittingpresident ’s performanceand a bellwether for which party will take control of the White House .
But midterm election are about much more than simply testing the political wind for the next presidential election . They are a hazard for Americans to go to the polls and vote for their representatives in Congress , state legislative body and local governments . While the presidential election is n’t decided by popular vote ( remember theelectoral college ? ) , midterm examination elections give Americans a chance to vote directly for the politicians who will belike have the greatest impact on their daily life .
For instance , every exclusive tail end in the U.S. House of Representatives is up for grabs during midterm examination elections . That ’s 435 freestanding races spread across all 50 body politic [ source : USA.gov ] . When you add the 34 Senate seats at playing period during midterms to the 435 House seats , you begin to understand the political significance of a strong showing on Election Day . The party that manipulate Congress has as much , if not more , political power than the political party sitting in the White House .
Congress not only drop a line the laws and pop off the spending bank note , it also decides whether or not to O.K. the chair ’s Supreme Court nominees and other major political appointee . And on the rarefied function when a chairman is caught perpetrate a law-breaking , it ’s Congress that votes whether to impeach . Those are even more reasons why midterm exam elections are a big softwood .
Despite the obvious political importance of midterms , shockingly few Americans really vote in them . The modal turnout of eligible midterm voter from 1972 - 2016 was a miserable 39.3 pct [ source : Skelley and Kondik ] . That mean , on mean , 60 percent of American voters stay home on midterm exam Election Day . The 2018 midterms were an outlier , with 53 percent of voting - age Americans going to the poll [ source : U.S. Census Bureau ] . The high turnout was likely due to the polarizing nature of then - President Donald Trump whoenergized Democratic votersto go to the polls .
Keep reading to learn how midterm exam got started , what position are up for election and why it ’s the civic duty of every American to cast their ballot in these off - year elections .
Federal Midterm Elections
Put simply , midterm examination election exist because not all elect office staff in the United States federal governance have four - year term equal to the United States President . The terminus of each elected office in the Union government were moot and settle during the 1787 Constitutional Convention and inscribed in the U.S. Constitution .
In the U.S. federal government , the only elected functionary are the president , frailty president and congressional illustration . Congress consists of two chamber , the Senate and the House of Representatives , each with its own term lengths and election schedule .
There are 100 U.S. senators , two for each United States Department of State . Senatorsserve six - year terms , the prospicient of any elect official in the Union governance . But not every Senate seat is up for election every six twelvemonth . Instead , allot to Article I , surgical incision 3 , clause 2 of the Constitution , the Senate is divided into three " class . " In the innovative Senate , each class consists of 33 or 34 senators . Senate elections are staggered so that one social class is up for election every two age .
That ’s why every midterm exam election there are at least 33 or 34 Senate backside up for a right to vote . There can be more Senate seats up for election if a senator dies in office or resigns before the end of his or her terminus . The election schedule is also staggered so that no more than one Senate derriere from each state is up for grabs during any individual election , midterm or otherwise .
accord to built-in scholar , there were a couple of reasons why theFounding Fathersdecided on a six - year terminal figure for senator with staggered elections every two years . First , senators are guess to bring stability and persistence to the Union government activity . By serving six age , for case , they may serve under two different United States President .
But that persistence comes with a price . The Founding Fathers worried that senators would become too chummy and for good complot for " baleful purposes " [ source : U.S. Senate ] . So , they settle to shuffle the senatorial deck of cards every two class and put a third of the Senate seats up for a vote .
The House of Representatives is a different beast . Representation in the House is based on population , with more thickly settled state getting more House keister at the tabular array . The current House of Representatives has 435 members , each serving two - class term , the shortest of federally elect officials .
The term distance of representatives was another merry debate at the Constitutional Convention . The precedent , as set by compound legislative assembly and former state legislatures , was that the representative in land houses were elected every class and sometimes every six months . The idea was that a short term kept representatives fair to the needs of their constituents . Some of the Founding Fathers consider that Union representatives should also be held to the same tight leash — a one - year term .
Others at the Constitutional Convention debate that one twelvemonth was far too short to get anything done in the federal regime , where legislative business would be more complicated than in the states and dependency . As a practical matter , they also signal out that it took months for some representatives to simply move around back and forth from their home states to the capital , so they lobby for a three - year term in the House . In the end , the two sides compromise on a two - year terminus [ author : U.S. House of Representatives ] .
With two - year terminal figure , every exclusive House butt is up for election every two years . That ’s why Americans vote for their House members during both presidential election year and midterms .
But midterms are not just about home races .
State and Local Midterm Elections
If you have vote in midterm election , there were probably many more raceway on the ballot than just federal voice . That ’s because many land and local governments schedule their elections on the same day as the November midterm .
For example , 36 states elect their governors during midterm examination elections . In 34 of those state , governors do four - twelvemonth terms . Residents of New Hampshire and Vermont elect governors to two - class terms , sogubernatorial electionsare held there in both presidential election class and midterms [ source : Ballotpedia ] .
And then there are midterm examination elections for can in state legislatures . All 50 states , except Nebraska , have two-chambered legislature , meaning there are two bedroom similar to the Senate and House of Representatives ( most apportion those names , too ) [ source : Nebraska.gov ] . State senators do either two- or four - twelvemonth term , and most state representatives serve two - yr full term ( only five states have four - year term for example ) .
With 50 states and 99 individual legislative body , that means thousands of state government seats are up for grabs during the midterms . In the 2022 midterm examination elections , there are 6,166 state legislative seats up for catch . This represents 84 percent of the state legislative seats in the U.S. [ source : Ballotpedia ] . In state of matter with two - year terms for state congresswoman , all behind are up for election in both presidential and midterm examination elections . Elections for state senators , like their Union similitude , are mostly staggered .
Not only are state senator separate into three course of study and elected in dissimilar years , but in many states the duration of the term is n’t fix . In so - bid 2 - 4 - 4 State , nation senators are elected for either two or four years depending on the year of the election . mixed-up , yet ?
The idea behind the 2 - 4 - 4 system is to ensure that there is an election every 10 years , because legislative districts are " reapportioned " ( aka redistricted ) every decade . Because redistricting give significant reward to incumbents , some law-makers want to verify voters have a say in who is in authority when those change are made . Illinois is an exampleof nation with a 2 - 4 - 4 election schedule .
Statewide ballot measure are another thing that Americans vote on during midterm . In the 2018 midterm examination , there were more than 160 proposals on state balloting either create by state legislature or citizen petitions . Those let in everything from financial proposal of marriage ( tax , bond , state pensions ) to highly politicize offspring like legitimation of marijuana and gender identity [ beginning : NCSL ] . As of this writing , 137 state ballot measures have been certify for the 2022 midterm [ rootage : Ballotpedia ] .
Then there are myriad urban center , county and local elections bear during midterms . For example , there are hundreds of mayoral seats up for election in the 2022 midterm , including some 72 mayorships in California alone [ beginning : U.S. Conference of Mayors ] . Same goes for city council rear end , local circuit board of didactics , county accountant , medical examiner and more . That would explain all those lawn signs you see around your neighborhood .
Despite the sheer number of elections decided by midterm , relatively few Americans bother to show up to the polls . And those who do tend to flock into standardised demographic groups .
Voter Turnout and Voter Demographics in Midterm Elections
The United States struggles with elector turnout , even during presidential election years . But low elector turnout is compounded during midterm exam elections that lack the paries - to - wall medium coverage of a presidential campaign . Ever since the voting age was lower to 18 in 1971 , voter outfit at midterm elections has averaged 17 percentage points down than presidential elections . In other Holy Scripture , presidential election average 56.4 pct of the electorate while midterm election get around 39.3 percent [ source : Skelley and Kondik ] .
Perhaps elector fatigue is partly to charge for the low turnout . Keep in mind that before this midterm election , there might have been primary elections held earlier in the year if two or more candidates from the same party were running for the same seat . Worse , there might also have been a overspill election a few calendar month after the primary winding , reckon on the state of matter rules , if the top candidate did n’t get more than 50 percent of the vote .
The 2014 midterm examination election registered the lowestvoter turnoutin a U.S. federal election since World War II [ source : Montanaro ] . Only 36.4 percent of eligible voter cast a ballot . The 2018 midterm , however , boasted the highest turnout in the former 40 years at 53 pct , thanks in large part to 18 - to-29 - year - old voters , who increased their elector turnout 79 pct liken to 2014 [ source : U.S. Census Bureau ] .
Not only is voter outturn at midterm examination election in the main crushed , but unlike demographic mathematical group are more or less likely to participate in midterm examination elections . In cosmopolitan , midterm voters are older , white and more educated on median than general election voters [ source : Skelley and Kondik ] . In recent decades , this has had political implications , since sr. , white-hot , more enlightened voters have been more likely to vote for Republican candidates ( although the more - educated demographictrended Democratin the 2016 election ) .
Since 1978 , Republican voters have been more likely to show up for midterm exam by an average of 3 percentage points . The Republican turnout advantage has been greatest during midterm exam when a Democratic president is in the White House . In three such midterm elections , Republican voter turnout was 6 percentage point higher than Democrats ( 1978 , 1994 , 2010 ) [ author : Enten ] .
From exit poll data , it ’s clean-cut that nonwhite voter keep to make up a smaller percentage of midterm exam voters compare with presidential elections . For example , in the 2008 presidential election , 26 percent of all voter identified as nonwhite , but in the 2010 midterm , that part was only 23 percent . The same 3 - point bead occurred between the 2012 presidential election and the 2014 midterm [ source : Skelley and Kondik ] . The 2018 midterm exam were an exception , with only a small drop in nonwhite voter from 26.7 percent in the 2016 to 25 percent in the midterm [ sources : Krogstad and Lopez , Krogstad et al . ] .
Even with historical imbalances in elector turnout , one vogue has turn up honest in almost every midterm election in the past 50 geezerhood — the party that controls the White House gets biff . In the next section , we ’ll explore the so - call " midterm punishment " and other hypothesis for midterm examination power transfer .
Presidential Popularity and “The Midterm Penalty”
midterm examination are typically big news for the sitting president and his party . In all but three midterm elections since 1946 , the company in the White House has lost seats in either the Senate , the House of Representatives or both [ root : Prokop ] . The phenomenon even has a name — the midterm exam punishment .
The conventional account for the midterm penalty is that midterm examination affair as a referendum on thepresident ’s popularity . If the President of the United States has performed well in the first two years of his term — or the economy has do well , as is often the case — the damage is specify to a few seat in either sleeping accommodation . But if elector sentiment has work sharply against the president and his political party , the midterm exam loss can be crippling .
When you front at historic chore commendation information and midterm results , this account seems to take for water . Between 1946 and 2006 , when a chairperson show a problem commendation military rating over 50 percent at the prison term of the midterm , his party has only lost an norm of 14 rump in the House of Representatives . When his approval rating dropped below 50 pct , his party has lost 36 seats on mediocre [ source : Jones ] .
Those are just the median losses . Individual midterm examination results make an even stronger case for the midterm penalty being linked to the President of the United States ’s performance . At the time of the 2010 midterm , for example , President Barack Obama ’s approval rating slipped to 45 percent and his political party suffered sullen losses — 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate . likewise , President George W. Bush ’s approval rating was a dark 38 percent for the 2006 midterms and his company lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats [ source : Jones ] . In the 2018 midterm , President Donald Trump ’s approving rating sat at 45 percent and Republicans lose 40 House seats [ source : Enten , Politico ] .
But there are also vie theories to explicate the midterm exam penalty . One is called thecoattail effect[source : Murse ] . The coattail effect is particularly strong when a chair is swept into office in a landslip victory , like Barack Obama in 2008 . give Obama ’s popularity and spacious appeal with Democrats , more people turned out at the poll in 2008 and 2012 to vote Democrat . Since most voter hurtle ballots along party line , popular candidates down the ticket stupefy a boost , from senators to House representatives to mayor . Those Democratic winners were , in consequence , riding Obama ’s coattails .
During midterm , however , there is no coattail core , or at least far less of an force . There may be a few high - visibility Senate raceway that draw larger telephone number of partisan voters to the polls , but nothing tight to presidential contests . The answer is that the president ’s party , regardless of the Chief Executive ’s performance or popularity , takes a hit during the midterm , because many of the voters who were excited to vote in the oecumenical election lack motivation to participate in the midterm examination .
A 2nd theory for the midterm penalty is callednegative voting . Political science enquiry shows that people are more potential to vote when they have disconfirming opinions of the president than when they have confirming ones . At first , this data seems to support the theory that midterms are a referendum on the Chief Executive . But there ’s a difference of opinion . Even if half of all voters support the president , fewer positive voter will show up at the canvass compared to the other 50 percentage who detest him . So , the midterm results may look like a resounding " protest vote " even though half the country has nothing to protest [ source : Erikson ] .
The results of the 2022 midterms are ask to follow the same general style , which has Democrats worry . As of this writing , President Joe Biden ’s blessing rating drift between 40 and 45 percent , which means that Republicans will likely win a significant number of House seat and maybe flip over some Senate posterior in November [ source : Newsweek ] .
To wrap thing up , let ’s take a flavor at some of the most singular midterm examination results in U.S. election history and their survive political consequences .
Historic Midterm Elections
The espouse are some of the worst walloping , rarest victories and biggest transfer of congressional magnate in U.S. midterm history [ sources : Frail , Murse , Branigin ] :
