In 1968 , Stanford University biology prof Paul Ehrlich published a controversial best - seller titled " The Population Bomb . " In it , Ehrlich – and his wife Anne , uncredited – prophesied impendent environmental catastrophe and human suffering due to overpopulation .
" The battle to feed all of manhood is over , " Ehrlich pronounced in the book ’s dramatic curtain raising blood . " In the seventies the world will undergofamines – hundreds of millions of citizenry are go to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embark upon now " [ source : Ehrlich and Ehrlich ] .
In 1968 , there were 3.56 billion people living on Earth [ source : U.S. Census Bureau ] . before in the decennary , American women were giving birth to more than 3.5 baby on modal , and the global fertility rate was five babies per fair sex worldwide [ source : Suzuki ] .
When Ehrlich did the math back in the 1960s , he saw world-wide population growing at an exponential rate . ball-shaped food production , on the other hand , was stagnated by droughts and lessen prolificacy of farmland [ informant : IFPRI ] . Combining too many people with too little resource , the obvious result for Ehrlich would be a world ravage by food shortages , mass dearth and even the collapse of civilisation itself .
The same year Ehrlich publish " The Population Bomb , " he cofounded Zero Population Growth ( ZPG ) , a grassroots organisation that joined personnel with the burgeoning environmental move to raise consciousness about the threat of overpopulation .
The central dogma of the zero universe growth movement is not that humans should discontinue ingest babies . Rather , we should stop having more babies than we want . When woman have control condition over their birth rate – through education , contraceptionand improved women ’s right – birth rates of necessity go down .
The goal of zero universe increase is to contact a sustainable global birth rate at or below " replacement level . " This is the birth rate rate at which population is keep , but not grown . Replacement level is bear upon by many element , notably the average life expectancy . The longer people populate , the fewer babies you need to replace them . In the U.S. , the replacement level fertility rate would be 2.1 babies per woman . In certain developing state where there are eminent expiry rates and brusk lifespans , it could be 3.0 babe per woman .
From the daylight it was published , " The Population Bomb " drew furious criticism from groups opposed to contraception and skeptical of Ehrlich ’s Day of Judgment grandiosity . virtually 50 year later , there are double as many multitude on Earth ( 7.2 billion ) , and it ’s strong to disregard the fact that England has not degenerate into a " small group of impoverished island , dwell by 70 million hungry people , " as Ehrlich portend , or that 4 billion masses have not , in fact , died of starvation [ source : Chivers ] .
But do Ehrlich ’s failed predictions mean that zero universe growth is itself a slow idea ? Keep read to explore the real scourge of overpopulation , aim solutions and whether it ’s an exercise in futility .
Causes and Effects of Overpopulation
Over the past 110 eld – a blink of the eye in human history – the world population has explode from 1.6 billion to 7.2 billion [ source : Graf and Bremner ] . This exponential growth has many causes , most of them positive and straight tie in to improvement inhealth care[sources : CDC , Wattenberg , WHO ] :
Still , the huge gains humanity has made in term of health , economical security and human rights have not been distributed evenly among the humans ’s 7.2 billion habitant [ sources : FAO , UN ] :
Global universe growth also puts a breed on natural resources like clean pee and forest [ source : WHO , WWF ] .
In 2014 , more than half of the humanity ’s universe lived in cities [ source : UN ] . While metropolis can provide improved economic opportunities for the great unwashed in developing state , they are also home to slums and sweatshops . In the poorest state , more than half of city - dwellers experience in slums with circumscribed or no approach to uninfected water , sanitization or permanent shelter , let alone education or health care . In sub - Saharan Africa , 61.7 percent of the urban population lives in slums . The United Nations predicts that almost all of future universe ontogenesis will happen in cities .
Even if Ehrlich ’s original predictions were unseasonable , there are clearly regions of the cosmos in which too many hoi polloi are struggling to survive on too few resources . Next we ’ll look at some of the solutions to overpopulation purpose by the zero population outgrowth movement .
Proposed Solutions to Overpopulation
Zero Population Growth , the organization cofounded by Paul Ehrlich in 1968 , is now calledPopulation Connection . Population Connection is deeply interested about the terror of unchained population growth to the surroundings , human right , and the health and safety ofwomenand miss .
For Population Connection , the most effective answer to dangerous levels of population growing is to increase women ’s access to mod methods of contraception . allot to statistics gather by the organization , there are 222 million fair sex in the produce world who have an " unmet need for family planning " [ source : Population Connection ] .
Population Connection limit this " unmet motivation " as women who are sexually active , fertile , and not using contraception , but who do n’t require a child in the next two year . Population Connection believes that simply by eliminating unintended pregnancies we could reduce universe development by 33 million unintentional births a year .
Improving access to contraceptive method is only part of the solution to overpopulation . Education and home planning counseling is also key , especially in develop countries .
In Uganda , for example , a third of married women report an unmet need for menage preparation . Relatively few of these women – only 8 pct those survey – cited lack of access as their top reason for not using contraception . Instead , they expressed fright about side consequence ; discombobulation over the need for contraceptive method after birth ; enemy from their husbands and others ; and a belief that you do n’t need to use contraceptive method if you have sex infrequently [ rootage : Megquier ] . Similar upshot are reported for other state in the developing populace .
A adult female ’s rightfield to take control of her own fertility is closely tied to other human rights . Women who have access to sound education , better wellness care , and better employment opportunities have fewer children on average than women who do n’t enjoy those same rightfield .
Despite its good intentions , the zero population growth movement has many vocal and passionate critic . Keep reading to discover their side of the population increase story .
Critics of Zero Population Growth
Some of the garish critic of the zero population growth drive are critic of Paul Ehrlich himself .
" If I were a gambler , " Ehrlich write in " The Population Bomb , " " I would take even money that England will not exist in the yr 2000 . " He made similar predictions about India , which would break up in a tidy sum of intellectual nourishment shortfall , disease and drunken revelry [ source : Chivers ] .
Something that Ehrlich betray to foresee was the " Green Revolution " inagriculture . While Ehrlich was making his doom predictions , an international consortium of plant scientists began spawn higher - yielding varieties of Timothy Miles Bindon Rice that would thrive in hard grow conditions . These seeds , in compounding with widespread use of chemical fertilizer and modern growing practices , moderate to vastly larger harvest in the rise earthly concern [ rootage : IFPRI ] .
Critics of Ehrlich and the zero population growth drive practice the instance of the Green Revolution to swear that people – far from being " parasites " on the major planet – are one of its groovy resources . mass create and innovate , designing technologies and systems that have increased overall quality of life since 1968 , even as the global universe double .
Other critics of zero universe growth consider that miserable birth rates are forged for the economy . If fewer hoi polloi are turn out each yr , then a land ’s universe gets progressively older on average . The reverence is that fewer working - long time people will result in less consumption of goods and service of process , slowing the saving . Also , without enough untried operate mass , there wo n’t be enough tax tax income to support societal programs for the elderly .
Another criticism of the zero universe growing motion is that countries with lower fertility rates actually do more harm to the environment . The two greatest producers of clime - changing greenhouse gasses are China and the United States , with comparatively miserable fertility rates of 1.7 baby per woman and 1.9 baby per woman respectively [ origin : UCS , World Bank ] . carbon copy emissions closely track per - caput income story , not universe increase rate .
As of 2015 , population ontogeny worldwide is slowing significantly .
More than 70 countries are now categorize as " low fecundity " with charge per unit of two babies per woman or less . Still , more than 60 " high - fertility rate " nation ( i.e. , more than three children per woman ) , mostly nations in Africa and Asia , are bear to make great economical gains over the coming decades [ germ : UN ] . As these develop population break into world consumers , they will pose unexampled threats to the surround .
When Paul Ehrlich launch Zero Population Growth , the impression was that world population would continue to grow exponentially , greatly outpacing our ability to fee ourselves . The New universe growing movement , lead by group likePopulation Connection , Population Instituteand thePopulation Reference Bureau , place a great accent on women ’s reproductive right and improving access to family planning resource .
The critics may jeer at Ehrlich , but by miss his " bomb " of waste predictions , he launched a movement whose very finish was to examine himself wrong .
Lots More Information
near 50 years later , it ’s easy to calculate back at Paul Ehrlich ’s direful predictions about population growth and scoff . Yes , England and India still survive , and the world has managed to feed itself – just barely in some place – while doubling in universe since 1968 . But Ehrlich ’s call to action , as magnify as it was , had its desire force . The issue of population growth entered the national and external conversation . Today , the United Nations has a dedicatedPopulation Divisionthat supervise universe drift as they associate to sustainable development worldwide . Ehrlich ’s original Zero Population Growth organisation has spawned other global nonprofits devote to eradicating poverty , protecting the environment and promoting greater reproductive rights for women .
