Moore ’s lawpredicts that the number of discrete elements on a straightforward - inch silicon integrated circuit will double every two years . While it ’s not exactly a direct relationship , you may interpret that to intend that computers will double in processing top executive every two year . That intend in the long time between 2010 and 2050,computer processing powerwill treble 20 times if Moore ’s law holds true .
In 2010 , IBM introduced the zEnterprise 196 ( z196 ) , which boasted a central processor capable of running at 5.2 GHz ( GHz ) – the fastest commercially useable processor at that time . That means the z196 processor ran at 5.2 billion cycles/second per second . Every instruction a processor executes requires a set number of clock ticks . The more clock ticks a C.P.U. squeezes into a second , the more operating instructions that processor can nail in a given amount of sentence . That ’s what we mean when we say a 5.2 - gigacycle processor is faster than a 3.2 - GHz central processor – the 5.2 - gigacycle silicon chip is capable of fulfil more instructions than the 3.2 - gigacycle per second chip in the same amount of prison term .
If 5.2 GHz was the top speed in 2010 , what will it be in 2050 ? Assuming engineers can find ways to keep up with Moore ’s law and processor speed in reality double every 24 month , by 2050 we ’d have a chip capable of run for at 5,452,595 gigahertz , or almost 5.5 petahertz . It ’s strong to opine what kind of coating we could conduct such a machine to harness . Complex computational problem , such as building practical simulations of the human brain , may become a relatively simple task . Some fantast think we may even make machines with intelligence far neat than our own . Perhaps those machine could come upon way to improve processing speeds even faster than mankind can . Before long , you could have a self - improving equipment pushing the physical terminus ad quem of how fast machines can march information .
While this dream of the future is popular among a certain section of computer scientist and futurists , other people are more doubting . Perhaps the human mind is far more complex than we empathize . Thinking may regard more than just electrochemical messages go through between neurons . Perhaps there ’s a hormonal element that subtly shapes how we mean . If that ’s the fount , it may be that gross computational horsepower wo n’t be enough to produce a machine capable of what we consider thought .
gear up aside the artificial intelligence debate for a moment , what might futuristic calculator await like ? They might actually be invisible . permeative calculation is a type of technology that incorporates computers into just about anything you may conceive of . Buildings , highways , vehicles and even the clothing you wear might have built - in figurer elements . Coupled with networking technology , the man of 2050 may be one in which the very environment around you is part of a monumental computing system .
In such a world , your digital living and your real life could overlap seamlessly . We see hints of this humanity in today ’s technology . There are hundred of smartphone applications that add a digital layer over our sensing of the real world . They might help you navigate around a unknown urban center or get wind a new preferred restaurant tucked away in a corner somewhere . These applications still demand us to activate programs on mobile devices and use those equipment as a lens through which we can see the digital world . In the future , we may be able to accomplish the same affair using chicken feed , contact lens or perhaps even ocular implants . Imagine being able to count at the world through one of a million different filters , all of which provide unlike kind of information to you instantly .
Then again , it ’s possible that our ingenuity wo n’t be enough to keep up with Moore ’s law after a few more microprocessor coevals . Perhaps our computers will be more unremarkable and functional . But considering the way they ’ve transformed our creation over the last 50 days , I ’m willing to bet 2050 will be an exotic , digital geological era . What do you imagine ?
