On Feb. 1 , 2021 , theMyanmar military seized controlof the country ’s government , oust democratically elect civilian leaderAung San Suu Kyi . The event spark far-flung resistance from the pro - democracy electorate , many of whom take to the streets to march in peaceful dissent . They were match with fury from the military regime . To date , more than 600 mass — including women and nipper — have been stamp out .
Political tumult like what ’s happening in Myanmar is not unexampled . But what occurred at aQAnon - connected event May 31 , 2021 — Memorial Day — was . At the For God & Country Patriot Roundup league in Dallas , former national security adviser Michael Flynnsuggested a coup d’etat " should happen " in the U.S.when respond to a question from an interview member who inquire " why what happened in Myanmar ca n’t happen here . "
A Blow to the State
The French phrase " coup d’état " literally translate to " blow of state " in English , likening forced political ictus to a physical ten-strike against the government . It did n’t accede the English lexicon until the late 1700s , co-occur withseveral major political upheavals in France .
Coups d’état differ from other shape of civil unrest — like state of war , riot and revolution — in several way . " Unlike civic wars , coups usually take place on one day,“Brian Klaas , an associate prof of spherical political relation at University College London and host of the Power Corrupts podcast , say in an e-mail interchange .
He also manoeuvre out that unlikerevolutions , which tend to have broad bulk support , coups are unremarkably spearheaded by a lowly group seeking political power . eventually , they also tend to focus on an executive force , such as a president or a prime diplomatic minister , rather than the entire governmental apparatus .
When most hoi polloi suppose of a coup d’état they picture a fierce military uprising : something like Chile’sbloody overthrowof President Salvador Allende in 1973 or the 2012 insurrection that be anuntold identification number of livesin Mali . And although the absolute majority of these events do skew toward violence , not all coups ask battue . Napoleon ’s 1799 capture of Paris , for instance , reportedly proceed off without a single dying .
Let ’s canvas some of the conditions under which takeover d’état happen .
What Brews a Coup?
So what leads to a coup d’etat ? " If I ’m being honest , it ’s very idiosyncratic from country to country , " saysScott Anderson , a older confrere with the National Security Law Program at Columbia Law School .
Klaas agree . " The drivers of a putsch in a place like Madagascar are very different from those in Thailand , for exemplar , " he sound out , even though both countries arecouphotspots . But , he says , the general rule of thumb is that " political chaos and dysfunction make coups more probable . "
The safe coup predictor for any given state is whether that rural area has a history of them .
After gaining independency from Britain , Myanmar enjoyed 14 yr of democracy before itsfirst military coup in 1962 . A procession of military military junta stick with until 2011 , when the country transitioned back to a representative quasi - majority rule . However , the military , evidently disgruntled with the most recent election results , snatched power back earlier this year .
Another predictor is a country ’s economic status . in the main , poorer country incline to have more political agitation , which can result a small , radicalized group to look for superpower . Four of the currenttop five most necessitous countriesin the Earth by crude domestic production ( Burundi , South Sudan , theCentral African RepublicandMalawi ) have all get coup d’état attempts in the last decade .
But it would be erroneous to put on thatonlypoor commonwealth are susceptible . After all , one of history ’s most celebrated set about coups , theassassination of Julius Caesar , occur near the top of the Roman Empire ’s power .
Deep political polarisation can also precipitate a coup d’etat , specially if one group feel that their interest are beingexcluded in the election process .
Divided We Fall
So , with that in mind , could a coup d’état happen in the U.S. ? Experts say it ’s improbable , though not impossible .
Coups seldom find in what political scientists have term " consolidated democracies , " where democratic founding are profoundly and firmly entrenched . " The United States is a consolidated , albeit sternly blemished , democracy , " Klaas says .
Anderson says three major factor put up to the United States ' " putsch - proofing . " The first is anindependent court of justice organisation . By and large , U.S. judicature are non - partisan and beholden to gauge , jury and legal precedent rather than a especial political company . This holds dead on target even for Supreme Court justices , who may be appointed directly by a sit Chief Executive .
Second ismilitary chain of command . The president holds the highest social status in the war machine ; as Commander in Chief , every general result to them . And as an establishment , respect for authorisation in the military runs deep .
But if putrefaction introduce the pecking order , there are still checks in space . Soldiers have the right to refuse lodge that come upon them as " palpably illegal . " what is more , U.S. military personnel department are not a completely homogenized group .
As of 2021 , people ofany gender , racial background knowledge , sexual orientation or political persuasion can — and are encourage to — serve . Together , these ( theoretically ) assure that one political actor or company does not achieve an unbreakable stranglehold over military power .
in conclusion , there ’s thesheer byzantine sprawlof the United States government . " We have a highly decentralized organisation , " Anderson suppose , " it ’s actually jolly unmanageable to highjack the organization , because you would ask to hijack dozens and lots of office . "
Some political scholars have argued that the25th Amendment , which allows a seat frailty president to take over for a president who is deemed " unsound for power , " could amount to a non - military coup d’etat under the right circumstances . Other mortal have argued onFacebookthat theInsurrection Act of 1807somehow provides a legal loophole that would authorize the former chair to dominate the armed services — a claim that Anderson hollo " complete nonsense . "
But majority rule require to stay vigilant . Once the idea is in the air , a coup becomes marginally more possible , fertilize the fears and faux beliefs of a small grouping of extremists . That ’s why , as Klaas says , " Flynn ’s statement was extraordinarily dangerous . "
