Astraphobia , or fear oflightning , might seem lightheaded , but the betting odds of getting come across in your lifetime are relatively high-pitched : 1 in 10,000 [ author : National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ] . Selachophobia , by comparison , is far more unfounded , since the chances ofbecoming shark bait at the beachare much dispirited : approximately 1 in 11.5 million [ source : Reilly ] . But statistically mouth , at least , neither of those phobic disorder is nearly as irrational as the number of voting .
In 2008 , a trio of number crunchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research calculated the probability of a single voting in a presidential election really make a remainder and determining who ends up in office . The not - so - civically - inspiring final result ? One in 60 million [ source : Gelman , Silver and Edlin ] . On a somewhat bright note , citizen of political swing commonwealth New Mexico , Virginia , New Hampshire and Colorado have more power at the poll , with a 1 in 10 million probability of rock outcomes , which is far from a certain thing , but at least ticktock the hazard of encounter Jaws [ source : Rampell ] .
Nevertheless , more Americans vote in the 2008 presidential election than ever before [ generator : CBS News ] . Bucking statistical unreason , a politically motley gang of 131 million adult exercised their popular right to toss away in their two cent on who ought to govern the land . Possibly due to the presence of a sinister prospect , nonage elector plow out in particularly high numbers that yr , with roughly 5 million more heading to polling topographic point than during the 2004 election . Older component between 65 and 75 years older also break previous balloting record [ informant : Kronholtz ] .
It is n’t a big surprise that those senior citizens in 2008 really rocked the voting , though . People over 65 year sure-enough are the most potential geezerhood demographic to vote , belike because crucial benefits likeSocial Securityand Medicaid are do by the government [ seed : Brandon ] . Regular churchgoers , matrimonial couple and even mass with especially active perspiration secretory organ are also more clever to vote , according to numerous subject area [ source : Lawrence ] . General correlational statistics aside , however , political scientists , psychologist and statistician are still left call off their oral sex as to on the button why those elderly , religious , decoration - sweating groups are internally prompt to head to the opinion poll .
Beyond the Voter’s Illusion
Whereas people may have a more vested interest in local race that hit closer to home , a national presidential election is n’t such an easy sell . Sure , there are the patriotic pitches that emphasize thevalue of commonwealth , civic duty , and dedication to a political political party or candidate . But when sizing up rhetoric against the existent - world , drop - in - the - bucket impact of a exclusive voting , take out that lever every four age in the United States makes so little logical sense that psychologists nickname it thevoter ’s illusion[source : Munsey ] .
The theory of the voter ’s legerdemain describes checking a ballot box as an exercise in altruism [ root : Munsey ] . Consequently , what drives people to the polls is n’t so much a desire to benefit a candidate , party or matter , but rather to keep a civil ripple effect going and thus do good the entire nation . Like sports fans doing " the undulation " in a stadium , alive elector supposedly barrack those around them to keep an eye on suit . And just as a solo fan might not want to look like a spoilsport by refusing to skip up and roll his arm in the airwave , voting is also a mode of equip in with a national identity element and dodging societal guilt heap on non - voters who are n’t proudly ostentate " I vote " dagger . In other words , the great unwashed vote because it calculate good , and it makes them sense good .
Or , the decision to vote might just run in the great unwashed ’s blood . Studies published in 2008 comparing the civil habits ofidentical versus fraternal twinscarried out at the University of California , San Diego , calculated that genetic science account for close to 60 percentage of a person ’s voting record [ reservoir : Choi ] . Other behavioral genetics research also hint that parent , particularly when they have party association and political outlook in vernacular , pass along their vote habit to their kidskin [ rootage : Alford et al ] . And tying together the biological and psychological underpinnings of voting , a 2009 Duke University study demonstrate how manful elector become emotionally invest in the outcome of a presidential election . Saliva sampling showed elevated testosterone levels in work force who had vote for the victor , while the hormone dropped in those who support the nonstarter , possibly sparking flavor of victory and defeat , respectively [ source : Kanazawa ] .
ultimately , if someone simply does n’t get that much of a chill out of perform his or her civil duty , election resultant also trifle a significant function in deciding whether people rejoin to the polls four old age later . According to multiple studies , hoi polloi who vote are much less potential to do it again if their candidate loses . Meanwhile , if someone refrains from voting , and his or her preferred candidate profits , he or she also is less likely to vote the next sentence around , because the electorate apparently got the business done without that additional ballot . The best - case scenario for turn non - elector into voters is for their campaigner to fall back , allowing them to perhaps experience tinges of guilty conscience that might propel them to the polls the next go around [ source : Kanazawa ] . In which case , people might not vote so much because it gain them feel good , but because they ’ll feel bad if they do n’t .
I am , confessedly , a presidential election junkie . I tune up in to the public debate , listen to the learned person and their projection and ascertain the return cast in until every United States Department of State is colour in in red or blue . But I doubt that I would delight the outgrowth so much if I did n’t vote . Once I punch my ballot and put on my " I Voted " toughie , a slight exercising weight is lifted from my shoulders knowing that I ’ve done everything in my democratic mightiness to bring my desired candidate into office . But why do I feel like such a saint when my balloting only has a 1 in 60 million fortune of make an literal remainder in a presidential election ? From researching that very question , it turn out that balloting is a intersection of sociocultural , biologic and psychological factors that are far more complex than the simple routine of take out a lever tumbler or checking a box . Some the great unwashed are literally hardwired to show up at polling station , whereas others unapologetically desist . Either way , it ’s unbelievable that for all of the time , effort and money poured into the American voting system , it stay one of the most irrational habit we sustain .
