The question seems almost disarm in its simplicity : How many gay people are in America ?

Or , taking a more wide - angle , modern look at it : How many Americans identify asLGBTQ ?

The question is simple enough . The result most sure as shooting is not . Justapproachingan answer is a chore . the great unwashed have been ferment at it for tenner . And nobody — not even those most deeply convoluted with the LGBTQ community — has a unequivocal resolution . Not yet .

LGBTQ census

" There are some really received service line numbers … , " says Meghan Maury , the policy director for theNational LGBTQ Task Force , the land ’s oldest LGBTQ advocacy group . " But it ’s heavy to know what ’s precise , correct ? youthful family line are much much , much , much , much more likely to self - identify as LGBTQ , really significantly more likely . quondam multitude are less potential … It ’s voiceless for us to actually lie with what number are veracious . "

Everyone involved in attempt to fix the question has an educate guess . But an accurate estimation , backed by unanimous science and carefully curated data ? Nobody ’s quite there . Not yet .

The Rough Guesstimates

" It ’s between 4 and 6 percent . That ’s the act most commonly ascertain , " say David Stacy , the government intimacy director for theHuman Rights Campaign , the state ’s bombastic lesbian , gay , bisexual , transgender and expose civil right organization . " But the thing about it is , the number is higher with millennials . I think we ’re still dealing with societal stigma here . These are the best estimates correctly now … But it ’s potential over time that ’s exit to change . "

Thelatest Gallup poll , from 2016 , puts the figure of Americans who answer this doubtfulness affirmatively — " Do you , in person , identify as lesbian , gay , bisexual or transgendered ? " — at 4.1 percent , or about 10 million Americans . But if that ’s not a pattern that anyone is willing to settle on , it ’s because it jumped by more than a half - per centum in just four yr .

From 2012 to 2016 , the number of Americans who answer YES to that question rocketed from 3.5 to 4.1 pct . That account for about 1.75 million more LGBTQ hoi polloi . In just four days .

In fact , the percentage of people who say they are LGBTQ has been steadily increase for years , Gallup reports , recently drive bymillennials . ( Gallup delineate that generation as those yield between 1980 and 1998 . ) From 2012 to 2016 , the telephone number of millennials who identified as LGBTQ jump from 5.8 to 7.3 percent . Millennials account for 58 pct of all adult who call themselves LGBTQ , yet they comprise only 32 pct of the universe .

The widely restrain hunch : There are a lot more people out there that are LGBTQ than we know .

" For sure , " Maury says . " For sure . "

Sexual Orientation on the CBAMS

The simple question of " How many ? " raises two very important sub - motion , with answer that are on the face of it much more straightforward ( if , perhaps , not quite in the " simple " category ) .

To take the 2d inquiry first , the Task Force , the HRC and many other organizations have been pushing for year to let in enquiry of sexual preference and sex identity on theU.S. Census(taken every 10 age ) and the Census Bureau’sAmerican Community Survey(ACS ) . The ACS , according to the Census Bureau , is " the premier reference for detailed universe and housing information about our res publica . " The ACS is ongoing . Some295,000 sketch a monthare mail to addresses across the U.S.

The ACS supply a veritable hoarded wealth treasure trove of population data point for federal and state agencies , businesses , particular interest chemical group , diary keeper and those who require to know more about the community in which they live .

There ’s not a question about sexual orientation or gender identity on it .

" I conceive , pass on the entropy that I have … that the federal agencies recognise a material need for having sexual orientation and grammatical gender identity doubtfulness on the ACS , " Maury says . " And I think that the Census Bureau was quick to move forward with that until this new presidency came into government agency . "

Maury is of course refer to the Trump administration . In March 2017 , in the first calendar month of the President Trump ’s days in place , the Bureau foretell that " sexual preference and gender identity"would not be a topicon the ACS or the upcoming 2020 Census . ( Embarrassingly , it was name as a propose matter in an prescribed Bureau document . It was come to just hours later , commit the mental picture that the Trump administration erased it from something the Obama administration had author . )

" The federal government has until latterly been hostile to LGBTQ people , by and large , and certainly unwilling to even seek to seek to collect this information , " HRC ’s Stacy says . " That evidently began to shift with the Obama administration . But we ’re seeing some curtailment in the Trump administration around these motion . "

At least one enquiry on intimate preference ( but notgender indistinguishability ) is expected to make it onto another Census Bureau questionnaire , the 2020Census Barriers , Attitudes and Motivators Survey(CBAMS),according to account by NPR . The CBAMS is not as wide - range as the ACS . But it ’s a dependable first step and it ’s critical , Maury and others say , in find out why some members of the LGBTQ community may or may not participate in the 2020 Census or the ACS . Even more , it ’s critical in gain an reason of the types of questions that should be let in on next survey and the motivation to answer ( and understand those answers ) accurately .

" When you ask somebody a question like , ' What is your intimate orientation ? ' or however you ’d articulate it , " Stacy says , " you have to make certain when you postulate it that citizenry understand what you ’re postulate and that you ’re realise what they mean [ with their reply ] . "

Why the Numbers Matter

With more agreement of sexual orientation and gender identity topics , with more precise doubtfulness and answers and , eventually , with more willingness on both the part of the federal regime and the LGBTQ biotic community to participate in sketch , the reply to that bounteous of big question — " How many LGBTQ the great unwashed are in America ? " — can be had .

But why do we need to be intimate in the first place ? What ’s the great hand about hold all that information ?

" The nose count controls billion of dollars in federal support … If you do n’t have an accurate enumeration , then the resource are n’t getting to the people that need it the most , " Maury says . " The census also controls redistricting , who ’s representing us in Congress , and at the land and local grade it touch on what our school territory look like . LGBTQ folks are more and more seeing their rights put on the balloting . So what redistricting looks like and who ’s representing us has a huge impact on our day - to - day life . "

We love this much : The LGBTQ universe is a growing forcefulness in American society . How big a force it is , we do n’t quite fuck . Not yet anyway .